Backing the Bengals plus the big points: Cincinnati +5.5 (-115)

We cashed in with the New York Giants as narrow underdogs at the Patriots in NFL Preseason action last week. In week 2, New York is laying six to visiting Cincinnati. A number this large lies somewhat outside the pale of exhibition play. Only 7% of preseason action since 2004-05 featured spreads of six or more (half the preseason games in the BetLabs database sported closing lines in the range of 2.5 to 3.5 points, and the largest spread on record for a preseason game is 9.5).

Further, we have observed that preseason teams taking six or more are 46-36 ATS since 2004-05, for a 56% cover rate and a 10% return on investment. Accordingly, we are generally attracted to big dogs in exhibition play. But in addition to this rather crude rule, we highlight a specific empirically proven system that validates our play on the Bengals plus the points in week 2 preseason play.

Historically, road dogs that made the last playoffs have proven strong bets in exhibition action versus non-conference opposition that missed the prior postseason.

Squads in this position have delivered a 17% return on investment since the 2004-05 season (statistically significant at the 95% confidence level) and have suffered only four years with a cover rate south of 50%. This angle is 1-1 ATS so far this year.

Happy betting!!