Playing the road dogs for the cover: Titans +5
(Getty Images/Will Newton)
The Tennessee Titans opened as something like four-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens in week 2 of the 2022 NFL preseason. The line for this contest is on the move though. The Ravens were required to lay as many as five points in recent days, but dollars on the Titans have since emerged to bid the spread back down to the vicinity of 3.5-4.
Interestingly, Tennessee backers represent only 22% of all spread bettors for this game, as of the time of this writing, so the compression of the betting line suggests that bigger, presumably better informed ATS players are getting down on the Titans. We are aligned with the sharp action here as we are likewise positioning for the road dog cover Thursday.
Supporting our play on Tennessee versus the number we note that, historically, teams taking points on the road have fared well in preseason games played on Thursdays.
Squads in this position have delivered a statistically significant 12% cumulative hypothetical return on investment since 2004-05. Further, this system has submitted cover rates below 50% in only three seasons during this span.
Separately, currently scant support for the Titans (as measured by spread wagers on Tennessee as a percent of all ATS bets on this game) is likewise consistent with the road win versus the number.
Away teams that appeared in the prior postseason, that are taking points in preseason action from teams that missed the last playoffs and that are backed by less than 35% of spread wagers have proven exceptional bets in the past.
Despite the slight (18- game) sample size, the extraordinary 41% return on investment related to backing teams from this spot proved statistically significant. Moreover, of ten seasons that saw triggers for this angle, sub-50% win rates ATS were recorded only twice.
To be clear though, this latter system will remain active only if the betting public does not flock to the Titans as kickoff approaches. Interest in the road team by at least 35% of spread bettors negates this signal. But we are backing Tennessee regardless, on the strength of the "Back bad TNF 🐶's" system detailed previously.
We bought the Titans at BetUS.com at +5, so far the high-water mark for this spread. We are comfortable though with any number north of the key three threshold.