2022 NFL Christmas Day Action: Denver Broncos at L.A. Rams
Updated: Dec 27, 2022
Betting Denver's three-game cover streak ends in L.A.: Rams +3
The AFC West-member Denver Broncos and defending champion Los Angeles Rams, of the NFC West, are both 4-10 through week 15 of the 2022-23 season. These squads will face off on Christmas day. History says back the Rams for the home cover, and we are obliging.
In regular season, non-division NFL action featuring two teams with no better than 30% win rates, taking the points has proven good for a (statistically significant) 16% return on investment since 2003-04...
We hypothesize that there is little difference between the absolute performance of bottom of the barrel teams. Thus, in such instances, the squad taking the points is most commonly the value play.
This angle has suffered only two seasons with cover rates below 50% and is 7-3 ATS so far this year.