2021 NFL Week 8 Teaser Opportunity: Breaking the 'Rules', Playing Side and Total
Updated: Nov 1, 2021
The Play: Seven-point Teaser (-140) featuring The New York Giants +17.5 & o45
We regard the week 8 Monday Night Football matchup between the New York Football Giants at the floundering Kansas City Chiefs as a solid opportunity to take a stab at the big underdogs and the OVER. We make a case below for each of these plays covering the listed lines. However, while history implies a bettor should expect to collect on both wagers about 42% of the time, teasing both lines by seven boasts an expected win in the vicinity of 70% of the time. We find this latter math compelling, and are betting accordingly.
A profitable rule of thumb is to back underdogs in NFL Monday Night Football action featuring double-digit spreads. Back to the 2003-04 season, there have only been 37 such setups, however, this simple system cashed in at an eye-popping 70% clip. Importantly, despite the small sample size, statistical inference suggests the observed profitability is not due to chance.
Explaining this result, we hypothesize that primetime affairs tend to attract more action from casual bettors, who are commonly enamored with better teams, despite the normalizing impact of the spread. We suspect bookmakers shade lines in response to elevated interest among Joe Public, creating opportunity with dogs.
More relevant to this evening's recommended wager though, teams of taking ten or more on Monday Night covered seven points teased lines 87% of the time...well north of the 76.4% average win rate required to turn a profit betting seven-point, two-leg teasers.
Additionally, when the last game of the football week featured teams from different conferences, the OVER cashed in 60% of the time since 2003-04.
We rationalize that the success of this second system owes to the lack of familiarity in non-conference action (League scheduling criteria mandate a mere fours games versus teams from the opposing conference). Against more foreign teams, squads are less prepared to counter propensities, resulting in greater success executing offense (both ways), and higher scoring games.
Such meetings have gone OVER seven-point teased totals 80% of the time historically (again, north of the 76.4% hurdle rate).
So, while we are aware of the perhaps too common advice to avoid teasing totals, we regard this admonition as a guideline and not a rule. In this specific spot, bettors have been paid to tease the OVER.