2021 NFL Week 7 Teaser Opportunity: Taking the Packers and Patriots
Updated: Oct 26, 2021
Six-point teaser (-120): New England Patriots -1 & Green Bay Packers -2.5
We recommend combining the Packers and Patriots in a two-team, six-point teaser for 2021 NFL week 7 action, as we observe contextual evidence that suggests teams in these spots cover teased lines at a sufficiently high rate to convey the expectation of profit.
First, we note that the portion of the regular NFL season where underdogs have an edge has expired. Week 7 marks the start of the part of the year where better teams have generally worked through rust related to the inactivity of their best players, and are likely to secure covers against listed spreads.
But as specific justification for the inclusion of Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers in our multi-line package bet, in non-division action, home teams that appeared in the prior post-season and that are favored by more than a touchdown but less than a TD + a field goal beat the listed number 59% of the time since 2004-05, which hints that Green Bay is likely to cover the 8.5. Teams in this position bested six-point teased lines 75% of the time though -- north of the 74% average win rate required on each leg of a six-point teaser to yield a positive return on investment.
Regarding Mac Jones' New England Patriots, we have found that home teams laying a touchdown in their division have proven great standalone bets, covering the listed spread 63% of the time. This cover rate swells to 84% though when lines are teased by six.
It also does not hurt that the rookie New England QB will face the bottom of the AFC East barrel Sunday, in the New York Football Jets, a team tied for second-worst against-the-spread record in the League.