2021 NFL Week 4 MNF: Taking a Side ATS and Playing the Raiders Chargers Total
Updated: Oct 4, 2021
Betting 7-Point MNF Teaser, featuring the Las Vegas Raiders +10 and u59
After baking in about a two point edge to the Chargers for home field, our power rankings composite makes L.A. about 4.5 points better than the Raiders in the week 4 Monday Night Football matchup. We are disinclined to back Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles crew to cover the field goal though, as the heft of the environmental data favors a road dog cover. However, our conviction is sufficiently high to justify a two-leg teaser featuring the Raiders and the UNDER.
As an example of the contextual evidence supporting Las Vegas, we have observed that short road dogs have delivered better than a 22% return since 2003. This cohort submitted cover rates south of 50% in only four of those seasons.
More relevant, teams in this position beat seven-point teased lines 79% of the time, north of the 76% level required to breakeven on wagers of this ilk.
Also in the Raiders' favor, early in the regular NFL season, teams taking points from their division in particular have likewise proven strong ATS bets, good for close to a 16% return since 2005-06.
Teams in this position have also proven profitable in seven-point teasers, covering adjusted lines 77% of the time (based on a substantially larger sample).
For the second leg of our teaser, we are taking the UNDER. We are well aware of the bad rap related to teasing totals. However, we think common advice to simply not tease totals is too sweeping of a generalization. While finding O/U setups that beat teased lines consistently enough to turn a profit is challenging, it is not impossible.
For instance, inline with our computer simulation model's forecast for the UNDER to collect Monday evening, we have observed that the highest total division games not played on Sundays have tended rather consistently toward disappointingly low combined scores. Backing the UNDER in such situations has delivered a 24% long-term return.
More germane to our purpose, games meeting these criteria came in UNDER seven-point teased lines 85% of the time.
Further, that all of the Chargers games so far this season have gone UNDER suggests the market may be overestimating L.A.'s offense, or underestimating their defense. Such mispricings tended to persist in the past.
The UNDER covered at a 54% clip in NFL games featuring home teams whose last three games went UNDER. This edge too translates to a profitable seven-point teaser setup.