2021 NFL Week 10: Teasing Wentz and Brady Sunday
Updated: Nov 13, 2021
7-Point (-140) Teaser: Colts -3 and Buccaneers-3
We are combining the Colts (versus the Jags) and the Bucs (at Washington) in a seven-point teaser on our NFL week 10 bet slip, as our power rankings composite as well as our examination of history imply that both double-digit favorites are likely to cover the big chalk.
Jaguars @ Colts -3
First, after factoring Indy's long-term home field advantage of 2.5 points, our power rakings composite framework makes the 2nd place in the AFC South, Indianapolis Colts, about 11 points better than the third place Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, suggesting Indianapolis has a solid chance of beating the listed line (thank God for the Texans, otherwise the Jags would be dead last in the division).
Additionally, from the realm of history, we note that teams laying double-digits after not playing since Thursday of the prior week have proven solid bets, delivering a 31% long-term return, on a 67% cover rate.
Worth mentioning, the 27-game sample indicated in the image is admittedly small, however this system's results proved statistically significantly different than the 52.4% breakeven cover rate the at better than a 90% confidence level.
More relevant to our purpose though, squads in this position beat seven-point teased lines 85% of the time, well north of the 76% threshold required, on average, to turn a profit betting two-leg, seven-point teasers.
When we narrow our scope to teams laying the big chalk in their division after nine or ten days off, we observe a historical ATS record of 7-2 (78%).
Further, such teams beat seven-point teased lines 100% of the time!
Buccaneers -3 @ Washington
Similarly, our power rankings composite grades the visiting Bucs as 11 points superior to Washington in week 10, after applying the appropriate (less than one point) home field adjustment for the host team. So again, this approach endorses Brady and the boys versus the spread, before considering the year effect.
Additionally, history says back road favorites off two weeks rest for the cover, as teams in this spot have generated statistically significant long-term profits, winning roughly two games of every three.
Teams in this position covered lines enhanced by seven 83% of the time, a rate sufficient to deliver profit in two-leg teaser situations.
But Sunday's match-up between Tampa Bay and Washington is a bit of a rarity, in that both teams are coming off BYE weeks (there have only been 28 such setups back to the regular 2003-04 NFL season).
Further, only 11 times has the away team laid the chalk in meetings between two well-rested squads. The road favorites is 7-4 (64%) against the listed line and 8-2-1 (80%) versus spreads teased by seven -- profitable in both cases.