The Play: Denver Broncos -1.5

Our core framework, a power rankings composite, grades the Broncos versus the number as the second highest conviction game on the NFL week 10 docket.

After affording Denver just over two-points for home field advantage, we see the Broncos as about 4.5 points better than the visiting Eagles Sunday, suggesting better than a field goal of value.

But in addition to the favorable indication from our primary methodology, we note historical context that likewise favors the home team to cover the short chalk.

Chalk layers off convincing upset wins have delivered strong profitability in the past. Specifically, favorites that won their last out by at least a field goal, as underdogs of more than a touchdown, have returned a statistically significant 28% profit since 2003-04.

As 10-point underdogs, Denver beat Dallas by two touchdowns at AT&T Stadium last week. The horses are slated as slight home favorites this week.

Happy betting!!