Backing the road dog cover: Atlanta Falcons +3 -135 @ Carolina Panthers

Through seven weeks of NFL action, road dogs are 40-29 ATS, for a handsome 12% return on investment. In fact, so far this year, this cohort has only failed to turn a profit in week 1. Further, teams taking points while traveling are an even more impressive 4-1 playing on Thursdays this season.

Inline with the tendency this year for unfavored away teams to cash in, our primary framework calls for the Falcons to secure the cover, as two-point underdogs, in the kickoff contest for week 8 NFL action.

Our power rankings framework makes the Panthers about one-point better than the Falcons on a neutral field of play. So after adjusting home field to account for the Panthers' plan to host roughly 5,200 fans for Thursday's affair, we still find value with Atlanta +2.5. And though we are paying the extra juice to get to the key, three handle, we do expect the Falcons to beat the the listed line.

Separately, we note that bad road dogs off the narrowest of losses have been solid bets versus their division, historically.

Teams with no better than 40% win rates taking points in their division after a loss by less than a field goal have delivered a 12% return on investment since 2003.

This system is 1-0 this season.

Happy betting!!