LA Rams -3 -135 @ Miami Dolphins
Our primary framework sees the Rams as five or six points better than the Fins Sunday, after accounting for the expected 20% capacity at Hard Rock Stadium. Additionally, the present appears to be a solid spot, contextually, for the road favorites to collect the cover. As such, we are betting on the Los Angeles Rams -3 at the Miami Dolphins (we are paying up for the hook, but we can easily justify the present line of -3.5 at the standard vig).
In addition to the supportive signal from our power rankings work, we note that in non-conference meetings between teams that missed the prior playoffs, favorites have been the profitable play, historically.
Further, it has also proven profitable during the first half of the regular season to fade formerly bad teams on hot streaks (ATS).
These history-based systems are a 15-5 ATS season-to-date.