2020 NFL Week 8: Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Siding With the Traveling Short Favorites: Betting Indianapolis Colts -2.5 -120
Our power rankings work sees the Colts as about a field goal better than the Lions Sunday. Additionally, we observe environmental support for the road cover. As such, we are laying less than the key three figure and backing Indy to cover this rare intra-conference meeting.
Consistent with the signal from our primary framework, we note that bad teams on ATS streaks have historically represented solid 'sell high' opportunities.
During the first half of the regular NFL season, a strategy of fading teams on two to four-game ATS win streaks after collecting no more than six victories the prior year has delivered a 16% return on investment since 2004.
This system is 8-5 versus the number so far this season.
Separately, teams laying chalk after extended breaks have also proven solid bets historically.
Favorites taking to the field after at least two weeks off have been good for a 15% ROI since 2004.
Rested favorites are 2-1 to date this season.
Finally, again favoring Indianapolis, in meetings between bad, relatively unfamiliar teams, the favorite in an unfriendly setting has been the profitable bet in the past.
When two teams from opposing conferences that did not make the previous playoffs face off, betting on the favorite to cover produced an 8% return on investment since 2003.
Bad, non-conference favorites are a perfect 7-0 season-to-date.