Betting Packers at Texans o57 and Lions at Falcons o56.5

Our computers are steering us toward OVERs in Houston and Atlanta Sunday, in week 7 NFL action. We are betting accordingly.

The OVER started the season a white hot 29-19 through three weeks of play, but has reverted back to its mean since (the NFL O/U tally is 17-26-1 since week 4). Thus, arbitrarily betting on surprisingly high scores going forward is probably not the gimme it might have appeared to be after week 2, when 11 of 16 games exceeded betting totals.

But, supporting our position for these two games Sunday, we note that when the most giving defenses have met, the OVER usually prevailed in the past.

Backing the OVER in contests featuring teams from different divisions, each giving up at least 27 points per game on average, has been good for a 19% return on investment since 2003.

This system is 6-4 this year, including a still profitable 4-3 run since week 4.

Supporting our position, from a more fundamental perspective, the Packers and Texans both boast bottom quartile defenses and top quartile offenses per Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistic. This combination implies high scores both ways, a clear boon for the OVER.

The Falcons' defense too ranks in the bottom fourth of the League, while the Lions just barely avoid this dubious distinction. And while Atlanta and Detroit boast decidedly less potent offenses than Green Bay or even Houston, the Falcons' and Lions' combined season-to-date O/U against bottom of the barrel defenses is 3-2, suggesting going OVER today is no stretch.

Happy betting!!