2020 NFL Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars @ LA Chargers
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Jacksonville Jaguars +8 -115 @ LA Chargers
We are backing Jacksonville to cover at Los Angeles Sunday, on the basis of supportive signals from our power rankings approach, encouraging indications from our computer simulation framework and a constructive historical backdrop.
First, our go-to primary approach grades the Chargers as five points better than the Jags at LA's new, state-of-the-art SoFi Stadium Sunday. And as no fans will be in attendance, we regard the location as a neutral site (and ignore home field advantage). Thus, we perceive meaningful value with the road dog, particularly at a current spread north of the key seven level.
Fortifying this forecast, the computer simulation routines in our lineup likewise endorse the Jacksonville cover.
But in addition to getting the nod from our power rankings and simulation work, history too seems to validate our play on the Jaguars. For one, we remind our readers that it has been quite profitable in the past to take the points when bad teams face off.
Specifically, when teams from different divisions, both with no better than 25% win rates collide, the underdog has covered 63% of the time, for a 23% return on investment since 2005.
It has likewise proven profitable to sell bad teams high, historically:
Teams that won six or fewer games last year and that are on modest ATS win streaks have been great fades over the first half of the year.
This system has covered 60% of the time, for an 18% ROI since 2005.