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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2020 NFL Week 7: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Updated: Sep 8, 2021

7-Point Teaser (-140): Jets +17.5 and u53

Our power rankings framework makes the Buffalo Bills no better than 11 points superior to the New York Jets on a neutral field in week 7.

Additionally, we note a general tendency for the public to get too up on good teams facing bad teams.

Home dogs taking at least ten points in their conference have been good for a 16% return on investment since 2003.

Worth noting, adding 7 to the Jets' current spread of +10.5 gets us across a couple of margins that tend to recur with greater frequency in pro football (namely, 14 and 17), in this instance, the listed spread makes this line a solid teaser candidate.

Separately, divisional action featuring high spreads has been fertile ground for UNDER backers in the past.

The UNDER has delivered a 23% return on investment since 2004, when the home team takes double-digits from within the division.

We hypothesize that teams are more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of division opposition, because the NFL schedule requires more frequent meetings. As such, teams develop deeper gameplans, and are better prepared to counter teams in their divisonal cluster. This more intimate knowledge, we believe, generally translates to tighter, lower scoring contests.

Thus, consistent with the indication from our power rankings work to the effect that the Jets should be able to stay within two scores of Buffalo Sunday, history also makes the case for the big home dog cover. Further, the bosom nature of divisional meetings favors the UNDER. Taken together, we think this contest marks a solid spot to take a shot on a seven-point teaser on the Jets and the UNDER.

Happy betting!!


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