Betting Denver Broncos +2 at New York Jets and o39.5
We are backing rookie QB, Brett Rypien, fresh from the practice squad, and the Denver Broncos to collect their third cover of the year at the New York Jets Thursday. Denver will start their third QB of the season, after Drew Lock went down in week 2 with a shoulder injury. Further, Rypien will represent the 17th Bronco to line up behind the Center since 2017.
Fortunately Denver will only have to contend with the 0-3 SU/ATS new York Jets this week. Consistent with the Jets record, QB, Sam Darnold, ranks 30th of the 33 NFL passers this season that have logged at least 45 attempts, by Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement statistic (DYAR measures quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage). Rypien's -87 DYAR compares quite favorably to Darnold's -184 rating (though Rybien has significantly fewer attempts).
As the the Jets passing defense is among the worst in the NFL, we think the rook can have some success through the air.
Injuries for both teams will impact Thursday's action. In addition to Denver being forced deep into its QB roster, per Rotoworld, Jurell Casey (DT) reportedly tore a bicep last week and is (presumably) done for the season. Starting RT, Elijah Wilkinson, will also miss game 4. On the other side of the ball, the Jets are down two starting receivers in Crowder and Perriman, and a third (Berriman) is questionable. Starting tackle George Fant is also unavailable tomorrow.
The betting line has moved dramatically since Rypien was announced as the starter, shifting from Denver -3 Tuesday to +2 as of the time of this writing.
We think this dramatic swing, driven by an astounding 91% of ATS-wagered dollars coming down on the Jets, represents an overreaction by the betting public. It would not be the first time.
Since 2005, teams that saw the spread move at least two points against them in a (nationally televised) evening game delivered the cover at a 56% rate,
Additionally, the present is a historically profitable spot to back underdogs performing below expectations early in the season. Esteemed analyst Bill James developed an approach for evaluating baseball teams' performance relative to expectations, based on runs scored and runs allowed. His formula, known as Pythagorean win percentage, has been adjusted to apply to other sports, including football. Backing short dogs early in the season whose Pythagorean (or expected) win rate is higher than their actual win rate has been good for an 18% return on investment since 2005.
This system is 8-4-1 ATS on Thursdays and 10-4-1 ATS so far this year.
Also in the Jets favor Thursday, we note that, it has been profitable since 2005 to take the points in meetings between winless teams.
Regarding the total, our computer simulation work endorses a play on the OVER. This is a 'swimming with the proverbial tide' pick, as the the OVER is 29-19 through three weeks of NFL action.
Also consistent with this forecast, it has been profitable, historically, to back the OVER early in the football year when the home team musters no more than 17 points on average.
This system is a ridiculous 7-1 this season.