2020 NFL Week 4: Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Backing the road dogs north of a key threshold
Our primary framework makes the Vikings about a point worse than the Texans in week 4, after factoring in a one point edge for Houston to represent home field advantage. Accordingly, we find Minnesota +3.5 an attractive wager.
Supporting this thinking, we note ample contextual support for the road dog cover this morning. For one, the market tends to undervalue teams taking points outside their division early in the season. Backing teams in this position has been good for a 12% ROI since 2003, including a 3-1 ATS run so far this year.
Further, taking the points when teams without a win collide has generated a 22% long-term ROI (4-3 ATS this season).
And finally, there is the case to be made that Minnesota has underachieved through the first three weeks of the NFL year. Backing teams with realized win rates below their Pythagorean Expectation, that playing outside their division has also proven a winning proposition early in the season (9-7 ATS this year).
Back the Vikings.