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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2020 NFL Week 4: A Solid Buy Low, Sell High Opportunity in Cincinnati

Updated: Aug 5, 2021

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -135 @ Cincinnati Bengals

A couple of systems on our dashboard point to a Jags cover, from the position of 3-point dogs, at the Bengals in week 4. For one, we contend that the present looks like a solid spot to bet on Jacksonville's (positive) reversion. Based on aggregate points scored and allowed, Bill James' Pythagorean Expectations formula estimates a 39% win rate for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 1-3 so far this year, for a 33% SU win rate.

Backing dogs of less than a touchdown that have underachieved early has proven a profitable enterprise, good for an 18% return on investment since 2003.

This system is 10-4 ATS so far this season.

Related to this topic of normalization, or reversion, teams, like Cincy, that appear to be playing above their abilities have likewise proven solid fades historically.

Over about the first half of the season, betting against teams that won no more than six games last year that are presently riding two to four game cover streaks has delivered a 17% ROI.

This second system is 3-0 ATS this year.

Happy betting!!

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