Third-Highest Total of Week 2 Marks a Prime Spot to Back the UNDER
Our computer simulation work calls for an aggregate total in the vicinity of 46 when the dust settles on the NFC North romp between the Lions and Packers Sunday morning. Interestingly, per SportsInsights, the total for this contest actually opened in the 46 ballpark, roughly inline with our forecast, but an exuberant public has since bid the line 3.5 points higher, to 49.5, as of the time of this writing.
A prominent theme in our week 2 handicapping efforts is the exploitation of the public's recency bias, which is typically on full display in week 2. The underlying rationale for this thinking is that prior outcomes cloud casual bettors' objectivity regarding what is likely in the coming week. Commonly, this phenomenon manifests as herding around darling favorites (typically the big week 1 winners) and OVERs for the most offensively prolific teams of the prior week.
Empirical study has documented such bettor prejudices, like the general tendency to favor the OVER for teams that have exceeded the betting total recently. But more germane to our week 2 positioning, we discussed in a separate write-up findings by Davis, Fodor, et al (2015) to the effect that bettors tend to overweight week 1 outcomes in formulating expectations for week 2 specifically.
Against this context, we regard the significant movement of the Lions Packers betting total as related to the Packers treating fans to a 43 point thriller last week, their contribution to the 77 point week 1 shootout at Minnesota. Similarly, the Lions and Bears combined for 50 points in week 1, easily levitating above the closing line of 42.5.
Largely on the basis of the output of our simulation work, we are among the minority of bettors lining up with the UNDER rather than the OVER (at present, 86% of O/U wagers on Detroit/Green Bay are backing the OVER, as is 80% of the dollars committed). Supporting the prognostications of our computers, history too hints that the UNDER is the play. Since the NFL adopted its current structure in 2002, the UNDER in Sunday divisional games played outdoors and featuring above-average totals is 150-117-3, for a 56% cover rate and a 7% return on investment.
Despite the impressive headline cover rate for this strategy though, a distinct pattern of ebbing and flowing profitability is discernable. Per the chart above, fading high Sunday totals in action between teams from the same division has proven quite profitable in week 2, covering in more than 60% of observed instances. So while history hints that we might be best served to file this system away for a month after this week, it does seems likely that we will get our money's worth Sunday.
By the way, two other contests also fit the criteria for this system (but are not supported by clear indications from our simulation work):
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers u47.5
The LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs u47.5
Happy betting!!