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2020 NFL Week 2: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports

Updated: Aug 5, 2021


Carolina Panthers +10 -130 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Our power rankings framework makes the new-look Bucs to be about 4-7 points better than the new-look Panthers on a neutral field. And we are not inclined to ascribe any value to Tampa Bay as hosts for the week 2 meeting, as no fans will be in attendance and there are no standout characteristics unique to playing at Raymond James Stadium (such as the altitude in Denver). Accordingly, we are taking the 10 points on offer at 5Dimes, and backing the road dog cover in this NFC South showdown.


As three-point underdogs, the Panthers mounted a 15-point fourth quarter charge in their week 1 home opener, but were unable to overcome an early deficit to the Raiders. Meanwhile, 700 miles away at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, the Saints assumed control of the week 1 meeting with the Bucs in the second quarter and never looked back.


Thus, Carolina and Tampa Bay are both 0-1 SU/ATS to kick off the the new season. But we note that Teddy Bridgewater looked significantly better than Tom Brady in their respective season debuts. Per Football Outsiders, Bridgewater was 16% better than a replacement-level QB in similar situations, while Brady was 17% below this threshold in week 1.


Viewed perhaps through a more familiar lens, Bridgewater posted a week 1 QBR of 75.5 vs. 34.5 for TB12.


For context, we looked back at the QBR for both players since Bridgewater entered the League. The results are illustrated in the following chart. Most strikingly, aside from Bridgewater's dramatic outperformance last week, is the consistent decline in Brady's performance since the 2016 season. Even excluding last Sunday's bottom of the barrel showing, Brady has exhibited a rather steady decline, with the slide accelerating last year (and while it might be too early to assume week 1's showing is indicative of the magnitude of Brady's deterioration since last year, we have discussed the general case for the decline of the aging QB in general, and for Tom Brady in particular, so this phenomenon 1) is a thing and 2) is not unexpected).



We also compared Brady and Bridgewater on the basis of ATS win rates (we are bettors, after all). Per the second chart, a similar trend is evident. Brady's profitability versus the number peaked in 2016, as did his QBR. However, the plateau in Brady's ATS cover rate materialized at such a ridiculously high level that the lower returns generated in 2017 and 2018 were still adequate to validate the "never bet against Tom Brady" mantra. Backing the G.O.A.T. last year was a losing proposition though.



Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater too has consistently led backers to the cashier's window. In fact, save 2018, where Bridgewater finished 0-1 ATS in games started, the seventh year QB out of Louisville has been more profitable than Brady versus the number (by cover rate and ROI), including last season's 5-0 ATS run.


Separately, bigger picture trends also appear aligned with our work. Since 2002, when teams from the same division have faced off on an early season NFL Sunday, it has been profitable to back big dogs. Teams taking more than a touchdown from divisional foes during one of the first four Sundays of the regular season are 36-26 ATS (59% cover rate, 12% return on investment, assuming the standard -110 vig).


A look exclusively at such contests taking place on the NFL Sunday of week 2 yields remarkably similar results: a 10-7 ATS record for big divisional Sunday pooches--good for a 58% cover rate and 12% ROI.


Happy betting!!


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