2020 NFL Week 17: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Back the Niners cover, north of key threshold: 49ers +7.5
FiveThirtyEight's predictive NFL framework makes Seattle no more than a field goal better than San Francisco in these teams' final contest of the regular season. ESPN's NFL Football Power Index likewise identifies supports the underdog, giving the Seahawks a mere four-point edge Sunday. Thus, there is the case to be made for considerable value with the home dogs at the current line of +7.5.
Buttressing the thinking that the Niners can at least stay within a touchdown of Russell Wilson's crew, we have observed that divisional action featuring an underdog of at least seven points and a favorite with a margin of victory of 13 or more over the previous three-game stretch has tended decidedly toward teams taking points in the past.
We expect the success of this strategy owes to the betting public's recency bias, which, we think, causes betting flows to chase winners and eschew losers. Such behavior would shade lines and create value with underdogs.
This system has returned 11% over the long run, including a 2-1 stint this season.