2020 NFL Week 17: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
History offers ample support for Dolphins cover: Miami +1.5 -110
We observe sufficient environmental evidence to motivate us to back the Dolphins, as slight dogs, to cover at the Bills in week 17 NFL action. As such, we are betting on the road dog cover Sunday.
For one, fading good teams with positive margins of victory after wins by at least a touchdown has been a profitable endeavor in divisional NFL action, generating a 21% return on investment since 2005.
The AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (12-3) bested their competition by 29 points in each of the last two weeks, and now look forward to the #2 team in the division Sunday. Further, the Bills' average 10-game margin of victory is a hair under ten points. As such, a play on the Fins is triggered for this system.
This set of criteria lost devotees money in only six of the last 15 completed NFL seasons, and is 4-2 ATS this year.
From a slightly different angle, moderate road dogs playing on Sundays or Mondays (as Thursday games have exhibited a pronounced favorites bias historically) after bad prior seasons have been strong bets in all but the most offensively prolific pairings.
This strategy (compliments of the analysts at The Action Network) generated a 15% ROI back to 2004, and is 10-6 this year.
Miami is turning around a meager five-win 2019-20 season and (as of the time of this writing) take an ever so modest point-and-a-half from Buffalo Sunday. The total of 41.5 suggests this contest is unlikely to be a barn-burner. Thus, backing the Dolphins at the Bills fits this system.
Finally, we have observed that when superlative teams (i.e. those with win rates of 70% or better) from the same division match up, taking the points has proven a sound strategy, good for a cumulative ATS record of 45-29-5 (for a 61% cover rate).
Backing underdogs from this position returned 17% since 2005, with only four losing seasons during the lookback period.
Thus or interpretation of relevant history substantially favors the Dolphins Sunday. We are betting accordingly.