2020 NFL Week 17: Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Betting the Falcons plus the touchdown
The Bucs have been rolling of late. Tampa Bay is riding a three-game straight up win streak after defeating each of their last two opponents by 29 point each. As such the Buccaneers three-game victory margin is now 19 points per game on average.
We hypothesize that betting lines become unduly inflated for popular teams after such gaudy margins are achieved. Our thesis is that some combination of casual bettors, eager to jump on a winning teams's bandwagon, and responsive bookmakers, who are all too happy to exploit the public's irrational biases, move lines too far the way of darlings in such instances.
Consistent with this presumed behavior, the three-week average percentage of spread bets down on the Bucs hit a season low in week 14, and has been on the rise since (to above average levels currently).
We observe some empirical validation for the notion that favorites become overvalued after strong near-term showings.
Teams taking at least a touchdown from division rivals with at least a 13-point margin of victory over the preceding three games have proven solid bets in the past, generating an 11% return on investment since 2005.
This system is 2-1 ATS this season.
In addition to triggering for the Falcons at the Buccaneers, this system also highlights the Bengals vs Ravens and Niners vs Seahawks.