2020 NFL Week 14: New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Betting the Jets continue their bettor-friendly ways: New York Jets +14 -120
Don't look now, but despite failing to record a single straight up win through 13 weeks, as a sort of silver lining only a bettor can appreciate, the Jets have covered three of their last four campaigns, including last week's longshot heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Raiders (a 46-yard pass from Derek Carr to Henry Riggs III, with a mere five ticks left on the game clock, shifted a four-point Jets lead to a loss by a field goal...ouch!!).
Our primary framework makes the Seahawks 12 points better than the Jets on a neutral field in week 14 (Seattle will not host fans at Sunday's affair), implying a point and a half of value with the big, road dogs. We paid the extra juice to get to an even two touchdowns and are aligned with the expectation that New York will continue its recent strides versus the number, even against the listed +13.5.
Supporting the signal from our primary framework, we observe evidence of ATS momentum for bad teams.
Teams that win no more than one game in four outright on average, have proven solid bets after collecting at least one cover. This system has been good for 12% return on investment (ROI) since 2003, and is a wallet-swelling 13-3 ATS so far this season.
Separately, Seattle fell to the New York Giants last week as 11-point favorites. This stunning loss serves as an exclamation point on the most recent five game stretch, during which the Seahawks secured only two wins (this after opening the season with a 6-1 SU run). Further, Seattle is up against their biggest chalk of the year Sunday -- last week was the only other instance this season where the Russell Wilson and company were favored by ten or more; Seattle lost that contest outright by 5. History hints that the Seahawks' recent struggles do not bode well for the prospect of collecting the cover this week.
Betting against teams laying double-digits after losing three or more of their last five games straight up has delivered an astounding 24% ROI since 2004.
We note though that this system has only triggered on two games this season -- both featuring these Jets. New York is 1-1 ATS this from this position.