Backing the winless Jets vs. a beefy, juiced-up, early number: NY Jets +10 -135
We have the Raiders as nine points better than the Jets this week on a neutral field, which approximates the expected environment at MetLife Stadium (as no fans will be in attendance for week 13 action). This observation, coupled with contextual precedent that also supports New York, gives us confidence in the home dog's ability to beat the number Sunday.
One supplemental support for the Jets comes from the historical tendency for ATS reversion later in the regular season, likely driven by the public's overreaction to teams' performance during the season's early going.
After week 5, teams with no better than a 40% ATS win rates have proven solid bets against teams with at least 60% cover rates. This system has delivered a 10% long-term returb on investment and is 15-9 ATS so far this year.
The Jets managed only three points versus the Dolphins last week. We also note that after the three other instances this year of singe-digit offensive productivity, New York averaged almost 22 points per game in their next contest. This sort of buckling down following an embarrassing performance appears to be the norm, rather than the exception. We highlight below a specific scenario where it has paid in the past to back teams off low-scoring games.
Squads taking points from a conference team (outside their division) after a single-digit scoring outing have been good for a 9% long-term return on investment, historically, including a perfect 4-0 ATS run this season.
By Friday the Jets line reached as high as +9 (that's where we jumped on the New York bandwagon...though we opted to pay up to get to the next key level). This was before news broke that Raiders' Running back Josh Jacobs and safety Johnathan Abram won't make the trip to New Rutherford (due to ankle and knee injuries, respectively). The inactivity of Las Vegas's lead rusher and top tackler compressed the line to the present +7.5.
We think the 3-8 ATS (0-11 SU) Jets have a great shot at collecting their third cover in their last four games this week, given 1) the impairment the Raiders face today due to personnel issues, and 2) the public is probably overreacting to the Jets' bad showing last week (though the Raiders are also on a two-game skid, including a real stinker at Atlanta last week, Las Vegas is 3-2 in their last five, is enjoying a winning season overall, and just does not feel like Charlie Brown in the way the Jets do), and 3) pride on the heels of last week's loss should motivate the Jets to compete Sunday.
Happy betting!!