2019 NFL Week 14: Inclement Weather Offers Opportunity
Five contests on the NFL week 14 schedule are expected to be attended by double-digit wind speeds. Such conditions generally favor disappointingly low scores, and we anticipate ample opportunity for UNDER-backers this week.
We have detailed on several occasions the impact of high winds on professional football scores (perhaps most exhaustively here). One examination of this matter looked at the 2017 season and found that winds in the 7-12 mph range detracted about 3.5 points from average scores, while winds of 13 mph or greater reduced aggregate offensive output by roughly 8 points.
A broader examination looked at 761 NFL games played in double-digit wind speeds between 2003 and 2018, and observed the UNDER tended to cash in after 56% of such contests. But this more extensive analysis also found that when bookmakers adjust the line down by at least a point in response to high expected air currents, the UNDERs edge for the full game essentially eroded.
However, 1H UNDERs demonstrated more immunity to bookies' attempt to adjust to conditions, covering at a remarkably similar 55% in games games where the total falls at least a point from open to close.
Consistent with this research, we endorse the following weather-related totals wagers for week 14:
Ravens at Bills u21.5
Bengals at Browns u43
Redskins at Packers u42
Chargers at Jaguars u44.5
NY Giants at Eagles u46.5
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