2019 NFL Turkey Day Action: Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys -6.5
The prudence of backing Thanksgiving day favorites in NFL action has, by now, been documented by even casual bettors. The Action Network reports that NFL favorites are 30-11 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving Day, including a 16-3 run from teams laying at least two field goals.
Consistent with this common knowledge historical predilection, we are backing America's team in the second of the three contests scheduled for Thanksgiving day. Yes, it is sacrilege to fade NFL chalk layers on the national day of turkey, but we also note that, in a small sample, notable favorites coming off fruitful road trips have been solidly profitable historically.
Since 2003, home teams favored by better than a field goal have covered at better than a 60% clip following back-to-back road covers.
Thus, we believe Dallas' solid showings at the Lions and Patriots in weeks 11 and 12 before being slated as home favorites Thursday sets the stage for ATS success this week.