Oakland Raiders +10
We observe several historical indications in support of the Raiders cover bid at the Chiefs Sunday. As such, we are betting on the road team to beat the number in NFL week 13 action in Kansas City.
First, the public tends to undervalue road teams off subpar offensive showings.
Road dogs have covered at about a 55% clip since 2005 after posting no more than ten points in their prior game.
Additionally, that Oakland is taking big points from opposition in their own AFC West division likewise fits with our expectation for the Raiders to bounce back from last week's embarrassing 34 point ATS loss to the New York Jets, of all teams.
Double-digit home dogs have covered at a 59% rate since 2005 against their division.
On the other hand, one reading of history hints that the Chiefs playing at home after a week off favors their cause versus the number.
Home favorites have been solid bets off BYEs, covering at a 55% clip since 2003.
However, rested home favorites are a sorry 4-9-2 ATS since 2018, suggesting bettors should have little trepidation fading this system from the present spot.
Separately, at present, 74% of the dollars related to the approximately 1,300 spread bets tracked by The Action Network for this game are in support of the Chiefs. This observation suggests that the spread might widen still. Thus, inclined bettors might consider patience, as this line could reach +10.5 or better before kickoff.
Happy betting!!