The 8-2 Saints avenged a week 10 thrashing with a dominant win at the Bucs last Sunday, while the Panthers slipped to 5-5 after the 26-point drubbing at home they endured in week 11. These top teams of the NFC South will come together at Mercedez-Benz Superdome in New Orleans Sunday morning. Several historical trends-based systems our on radar support the Panthers as ten-point underdogs.
Carolina was held to their lowest offensive productivity of the season last week. The Panthers managed only a field goal versus the Falcons in a contest whose outcome was never in question. If past is prologue, expect a more competitive showing Sunday from the Panthers.
Away teams taking points after mustering no more than ten in their last out have covered the spread at about a 55% rate since 2003.
This system is 9-6 ATS (60%) so far this season.
Separately, generally speaking, home teams have struggled against bloated lines historically.
The advantage for big road underdogs swells though when we focus exclusively on divisional action.
Teams giving ten or more points to a division foe in their building are 71-96-3 ATS (43%) since 2003.
Further, the sealed environment that teams playing in domes enjoy has offered no insulation from the historical tendency in favor of road dog covers when facing big lines.
When we restrict our sample to include only divisional play in domes featuring at least ten-point home favorites, the cover rate is even more impressive.
The fly in the ointment for us though is that our power rankings work makes the Saints 10.5-12 points better than the Panthers Sunday. Given the conflicting indications from our primary framework and our interpretation of history, this game is a pass for us. However, must confess to being tempted to deviate from our discipline and back the road team (unofficially)...but we wont.
Happy betting!!