• @WizeOwlSports

2019 NFL Week 12 TNF: Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Updated: Aug 5, 2021

We are backing the Texans at their NRG Stadium Thursday, as the present has been a solid spot for the favorite to secure the ATS win historically. Additionally, we expect that conditions will favor disappointingly low scoring, especially early on. As such, we are likewise betting the first half UNDER. Our rationale is laid out below:

 

Houston Texans -3.5

Generally speaking, NFL favorites have demonstrated an edge on Thursdays. We detailed this tendency last week, most recently.

And while TNF favorites are an anomalously poor 3-8 ATS this season, the present appears a prime spot to side with the Thursday Night Football favorite.

Since 2003, teams laying chalk on Thursdays have covered at a 70% clip (26-11) in week 12. In fact, only week 8 has seen greater ATS win rates for TNF point givers.

 

Colts @ Texans 1H u23

We also expect conditions to favor the UNDER Thursday, as the National Weather Service forecasts average wind speeds of 9-10 mph throughout the game, with gusts of up to 15 mph.

High wind speeds have indeed been associated with depressed scoring. We reviewed research on this topic in detail ahead of week 3 action. One examination yielded the following observations:

Winds of 7-12 mph reduced scores by 3.5 points.

A separate investigation resulted in a similar conclusion:

Between 2003 and 2017 the UNDER covered in games played in 10 mph winds or greater about 55% of the time.

However, this latter study noted that when the line adjusted for excessive windiness this edge evaporated for the whole game O/U...1H totals though proved immune to offsetting line movement however.

The 55% win rate for the 1H UNDER persisted in NFL games attended by high winds, regardless of the change in the full game total.

Happy betting!!

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