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2019 NFL Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans -3

 

Our power rankings framework makes the Titans to be the better team by roughly four points as hosts to the Jags in week 12 NFL action. We also observe that the present has been a solid spot for teams, like Tennessee, after a week off. As such, we are backing the home cover Sunday.

In addition to the favorable signal from our primary approach, home favorites have been solid historical bets off BYEs.

We must confess though to feeling some consternation over the struggles of rested home favorites this season. This contingent is 2-5 ATS so far this year. This anxiety is at least partially assuaged however by the observation that solid teams that have right-footed themselves after a setback have been good bets historically.

Teams that won three of their last four games SU, including their most recent out, went 63-38-5 ATS (63%) between 2004 up to week 8 of last season.

Separately, while it is extremely early in the betting week, 70% of spread wagers and 89% of dollars committed ATS are down on the homeboys as of the time of this writing. Thus the number is likely to rise between now and Sunday (so inclined bettors should consider laying the chalk sooner than later).

Happy betting!!

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