Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-125)
Pittsburgh will port a four-game win streak to Cleveland Thursday, to face a Browns team that only narrowly snapped a four-game skid last week.
Our power rankings framework makes the Browns at home to be zero to two points better than the Steelers in this battle of AFC North also-rans. As such, we are siding with Pittsburgh plus the points--but we are paying the juiced up vig to get to the key three level.
Contrary to our thinking about the ATS outcome though, we have documented (more than once) the edge favorites have enjoyed in Thursday Night Football.
Since 2003, NFL teams laying chalk are 112-74-8 ATS (60%) on Thursdays.
However, in spite of the history of broad profitability for teams expected to collect the win on Thursdays, there are situations where bettors should feel comfortable fading the TNF favorite. This week 11 contest represents one such spot.
Throughout our examination period, underdogs' most consistently successful Thursdays (ATS) materialized in week 11.
And though our sample size is small, the starkness of the difference in cover rates in weeks 10 and 11 versus the rest of the football year is undeniable.
At odds with the historical norm though, Thursday night favorites have had an exceptionally tough season to date, covering the chalk in only two of ten games so far this year. This observation hints that the generalization related to backing NFL favorites on Thursdays should be shelved.
Steelers @ Browns u40
We are also betting on a surprisingly low scoring affair when these two botttom-quartile offenses collide--the Steelers rank 23rd throwing the ball and 27th rushing, while the Browns are 25th in passing, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. Aiding the UNDER's cause, we expect Pittsburgh's 5th ranked pass defense by DVOA to exacerbate Baker Mayfield and company's troubles through the air. Consistent with our expectation for a lower than expected aggregate score, we note that the UNDER is 26-13-3 since 2003 in NFL Thursday Night Football games with a closing total of less than 42.
The 67% cover rate for the UNDER holds when we narrow our (already small) sample to focus on divisional matchups. The UNDER is 16-8-2 in divisional TNF action with low betting totals.
Additionally, 10 mph winds are expected throughout this contest, according to NFLWeather.com. High winds too have historically been associated with above average cover rates for the UNDER. We reviewed research on this topic in week 3.
Bottom line: As far as we can tell, the fundamentals and the context point to the road dogs and the UNDER. We are backing both, as well as taking a standard teaser on Pittsburgh +25 and UNDER 40.
Happy betting!!