Photo: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Our power rankings work has warmed up to the idea of the Ravens cover as 10-point favorites at the Bengals. However, the history we have observed offers a crosscurrent. So while our hypothetical play is Baltimore minus the points in week 10 NFL action Sunday morning, we are passing.
First, consistent with thew road win ATS, as of the time of this writing, the Ravens are drawing the support of 69% of the spread bets tracked by The Action Network, during this period when the prescience of the crowd has been documented.
Road teams backed by a majority of the volume of spread wagers have proven strongly profitable since 2003 during the part of the year we deem the 'belly' of the NFL season.
However, teams are 7-8 ATS from this spot this year, after a disasterous 1-6 showing last week.
On the other hand, supporting the Bengals' bid for the cover, big home dogs tend to fare well in divisional action.
In a small sample, teams taking ten or more points in their building from a division foe have covered pretty consistently since 2003.
Bottom line: While our primary framework says lay the big chalk and line up behind the Ravens, we are skeptical. A generally reliable historical system that also favors Baltimore has lost its way, while a separate profitable system points to a cover for the home dog...not to mention, John Harbough is 9-13 ATS in Baltimore as a double-digit favorite. We are passing.
Happy betting!!