Washington Redskins -10.5
Our power rankings framework makes the Bills no more than about 9.5 points better than the Skins this morning, so we find the last minute line movement from the opening level of 10 to 10.5 compelling. We are betting Washington plus the points.
Redskins backers account for only 41% of spread wagers and 36% of the money down on this contest, per numbers from The Action Network (explaining the widening line).
Readers know by now that we are not fond of backing unloved teams during the 'belly' of the season. In this instance though we think the public is overreacting to Washington's recent absolute performance.
We have observed previously that road dogs off low production games have been strong ATS bets historically.
This cohort is 5-3 versus the number this season.
Happy betting!!