Houston Texans -6.5
During this period we have deemed the "belly" of the regular NFL season (essentially the middle third of the NFL year), it has proven prudent to back, rather than fade, the public. We detailed this observation last week, but in short, follow the herd when making your ATS NFL picks between weeks 7 and 12 has yielded strong profits historically -- and the bigger the herd, the better, generally speaking.
Inline with our play on Houston -6.5, the Texans have attracted the backing of 60/70% of public wagers tracked by Covers/The Action Network as of the time of this writing.
But in addition to their being aligned with the betting consensus at what has been the right time of the football year historically, we like the Texans Sunday because our power rankings framework calls for a 7-11 point win for the home team, suggesting a potentially comfortable cover.
Fundamentally, the biggest mismatch of this match-up appears to be Deshaun Watson and the Texans' 10th ranked aerial attack (by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or DVOA), against the Raiders' bottom-of-the-barrel pass defense--Oakland is 30th at stifling the pass per DVOA. Season-to-date, the boys from the Bay Area are 1-3 ATS facing the League's best offenses, covering only against the Colts, and missing opportunities against the Chiefs, Vikings and Packers.
Disparities in other facets of the game are less glaring.
Off last week's road loss at Indianapolis, the Texans fell to a game behind the Colts in the loss column for the top spot in the AFC South. We expect Houston's offense to demonstrate adequate motivation at home this Sunday to secure the cover against an Oakland team struggling to find its footing in the wake of a stream of distractions through the pre-season and a disappointing start.
Bottom line: The present appears a solid spot to back the Texans. 1) Our power rankings work gives the home team the nod, 2) the herd agrees (at the point in the season when crowd-think has proven to contain valuable information), and 3) we think expect Houston to demonstrate resolve in week 8 after tasting defeat last out, against a rather tremulous opponent.
Happy betting!