Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers -4
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
October 13, 2019, 5:20 PM PST
Our power rankings framework estimates Green Bay at home to be about six points better than Detroit in week 6. As such, we see considerable value laying the four with the 4-1 SU/ATS Packers in Monday Night Football.
On September 29th the Lions lost to the visiting Chiefs by 4 points (covering the spread of +7.5 with a good margin). Since that point, the team has seen no competitive action, as the Detroit enjoyed a BYE last week. As 4 point underdogs as of the time of this writing, the Lions will travel to Wisconsin in week 6 to face the Packers in the final contest of the week.
Conventional wisdom suggests rested teams are worthy of a flyer ATS...and at a high level, the data does support this thesis. Per Pro Football reference, since 2003 NFL teams are 270-231-13 (54%) ATS in regular season action following a week off.
However, we have found that finding profit betting games after BYE weeks is a nuanced affair. For instance, road favorites off BYEs have been exceptional performers versus the number, delivering a 63-34-1 ATS performance since 2003. When we remove this cohort from the aforementioned sample though, cover rates for teams off BYEs reduce to 51%, on a record of 207-197-12 ATS -- notably below the threshold for profitability assuming the standard vigorish.
It gets worse: teams facing opposition within their division are 89-95-3 ATS (49%) after a BYE. And road dogs facing a divisional rival after a BYE are a downright fadeable 23-32-1 ATS (42%).
Thus, a thoughtful dissection of the data reveals distinct situations where bettors have done well to back teams off BYEs, and others where it has paid to fade teams in this spot. The present appears the latter.
As a final morsel to chew on, consider that, per TeamRankings, Green Bay is 56-30-2 (65%) ATS versus the NFC North in the Aaron Rodgers era (i.e. since 2005). This record is good for 'best in business' honors for intra-divisional action over this timeframe.
Bottom line: We are selling a traveling Lions team off a week's rest, as our power rankings work highlights considerable value with the home team, and, despite some gambling mythology that might cloud the subject, history hints that the present is a tough spot for the rested team to collect the cover...not to mention Aaron Rodgers has been lights out versus the division throughout his career, and looks to be in prime form this season. For all these reasons, we think bettors should feel no trepidation fading Detroit this week.
Happy betting!!