Cincy Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens u48
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
October 13, 2019, 10:00 AM PST
Our power rankings framework suggests the Ravens at home are more than 11 points superior to the Bengals in week 6 of NFL action. However, the historical difficulties double-digit favorites have experienced covering divisional action gives us pause. Since 2003, teams laying at least ten to opposition in the same division are a meager 87-112-2 ATS (44%).
Moreover, the 33 and 40 points allowed in weeks 3 and 4 to the Chiefs and Browns make it clear that the Ravens top-ten defense is a thing of the past.
This is not to say that we are passing on this game though. Rather, we have merely shifted our attention for this contest from the ATS market to the totals arena. Our computer simulation work sees 47 as the ceiling for the points total for this contest, hinting that value exists for UNDER-backers.
Consistent with this indication, we observed last season that the UNDER has demonstrated a notable edge in divisional action featuring double-digit betting spreads. From the start of the 2003 season through late November 2018, the UNDER collected after 59% of the time this system triggered a play.
NFL scheduling rules require clubs to play the teams in their division twice per season, on average, leaving just 11 regular season contests to see the other 88% of League constituents. We theorize that the increased familiarity that more frequent inter-divisional action breeds allows defenses to lock into (and thwart) their opponents' offensive intentions -- incidentally, this same rationale might explain why favorites struggle to cover big spreads versus their division.
Bottom line: Given the difficulties teams have exhibited covering the big chalk versus divisional foes, the signals from the computer simulation routines at our disposal in favor of a disappointing aggregate score, and the big picture historical trend in support of the UNDER from this position, we are eschewing the indication from our power rankings framework in favor of the Ravens cover and are instead betting that the final combined points total comes in below 48.
Happy betting!!