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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2019 NFL Week 6: A Spot to Sell Three Solid Teams

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -4

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas CIty, MO

October 13, 2019, 10:00 AM PST


Claiming the title for second highest team score of the NFL season, the Texans hung 53 points on the Falcons in a 21 point home win in week 5. In similarly lopsided action last week, the Eagles held the visiting Jets to 6 and cruised to a 25 point win. And Monday night the hosting Niners had their way with an offensively inept Browns team that managed to score only a field goal and allowed 31 to the home team.

It has been profitable in the past to fade (ATS) teams taking to the road after big home wins. In a write-up for The Action Network heading into week 11 of the 2017 NFL season, John Ewing observed a 56% cover rate and a 9.2% return on investment to betting against teams to cover the spread when their previous game was played in their own building and the result was a win by at least 17 points. 

Three matchups that fit this system in week 6:

Chiefs -4 vs. Texans,

Rams -3 vs. 49ers and

Vikings -3 vs. Eagles

Of these, our primary, power rankings framework forecasts value with the Chiefs, whom we see as 6-8 points better than the visiting Texans Sunday. As such, we are backing Kansas City for the home cover.

Happy betting!!

#nfl #nfl2019wk6 #nfl2019 #texans #chiefs #eagles #vikings #49ers #rams

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