2019 NFL Week 6: A Spot to Sell Three Solid Teams
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -4
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas CIty, MO
October 13, 2019, 10:00 AM PST
Claiming the title for second highest team score of the NFL season, the Texans hung 53 points on the Falcons in a 21 point home win in week 5. In similarly lopsided action last week, the Eagles held the visiting Jets to 6 and cruised to a 25 point win. And Monday night the hosting Niners had their way with an offensively inept Browns team that managed to score only a field goal and allowed 31 to the home team.
It has been profitable in the past to fade (ATS) teams taking to the road after big home wins. In a write-up for The Action Network heading into week 11 of the 2017 NFL season, John Ewing observed a 56% cover rate and a 9.2% return on investment to betting against teams to cover the spread when their previous game was played in their own building and the result was a win by at least 17 points.
Three matchups that fit this system in week 6:
Chiefs -4 vs. Texans,
Rams -3 vs. 49ers and
Vikings -3 vs. Eagles
Of these, our primary, power rankings framework forecasts value with the Chiefs, whom we see as 6-8 points better than the visiting Texans Sunday. As such, we are backing Kansas City for the home cover.