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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2019 NFL Week 6: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Oct 13, 2019, 6:30 AM PST


Our power rankings work gives the Bucs an ever so slight edge when these teams square off Sunday morning in north London, in the second contest of five NFL games scheduled abroad this season. But despite our regarding Tampa Bay as a live dog, we are content to take the points, which we view as a margin of error.

Supporting the indication from our main handicapping approach for football, we noted last season the long-term historical profitability of backing poor teams ATS against winners versus the number after about the first third of the season.

Specifically, as of the point last year when we discovered this system, from week 6 through the end of the regular season, teams that covered no more than 40% of their games beat the number in their next out 57% of the time when facing a team with an ATS win rate of 60% or more -- the Bucs are 2-3 ATS (40%), while the Panthers are 3-2 (60%).


Five other week 6 contests fit this system:

NY Giants +16.5 @ Patriots

Eagles +3 @ Vikings              Falcons -2.5 @ Cardinals     NY Jets +7.5 @ Cowboys    

LA Chargers -7 vs. Steelers


In the face of our constructive signal for the Bucs though, as we also observed last year, favorites tend to beat the number in regular season NFL games hosted on neutral ground.

Including last season's 2-2 ATS showing, and this year's 0-1 start, chalk layers are 25-13-2 ATS since 2003 in regular season NFL contests arbitrated on an unbiased field.  

In spite of this bigger picture trend supporting the favorite, in our estimation, the combination of the constructive signal from our main NFL handicapping model coupled with the tendency for the best and worst teams ATS to regress toward average at about this point in the football year compel us to take the points and back the Bucs. 

Happy betting!!

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