Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets +7
MetLife Stadium, E. Rutherford, NJ
September 16, 2019, 5:20PM PST
Per CRIS, the Cleveland Browns opened as 2.5 point favorites at the New York Jets for the NFL's week 2 edition of Monday Night Football. However, the Jets dropped a bomb Thursday when the organization announced that starting QB, Sam Darnold, would miss the action as a result of a case of mono. The line shot up to as high as Jets +7, before settling at the current +6.5 level. We jumped on the homeboys plus the touchdown, as we think the market is overreacting to Trevor Siemian assuming Darnold's playing time Monday Night.
An account by The Score suggests Darnold is worth about 1.5 points to the betting line per game, on average. A more generous take from William Bernanke of CG Technologies, as reported by The Action Network, ascribes a value of three spread points to the second-year man from USC (whose cumulative record as an NFL starter is 5-8-1 ATS, by the way).
From a different angle, and as a cross-check to the QB worth estimates presented above, consider that Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been the absolute gold standard for professional QB play over the last five years, ranking in the top-10 in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) in each season (DYAR measures the value of quarterback performance compared to a replacement level QB, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage).
In contrast to the highest level of play at the QB position, as epitomized by Brees and Brady, Sam Darnold's DYAR is decidedly negative over his brief NFL career. According to Bernanke, Brees and Brady are worth five spread points...even if we concede that that this extremely accomplished but well-tenured duo are past their prime, surely an utterly unproven Darnold must be worth considerably less than the game's elite, right?
Our power rankings framework pitted the Jets as almost three-point favorites before the announcement of Darnold's absence. Given our view that the market has mispriced the news of Siemian's insertion into the starting lineup, we perceive even more value with New York now.
Consistent with our thesis that the market got the line adjustment wrong in this instance, The Action Network's John Ewing observed recently that big line moves tend to be misleading in primetime NFL action. Ewing found strong returns to fading line movements of two points or more in evening games (which tend to attract more interest from uninformed, casual bettors, which, in turn, opens the door for wider inefficiencies).
Finally, we discussed Sunday morning the remarkably consistent profitability of backing underdogs in week 2 NFL play when two win-less teams face off. Our note on this topic highlighted the Jags, Broncos and Jets as teams likely to cover the spread. Jacksonville and Denver both covered.
Happy betting!!