NFL 2019 Week 2: A Good Spot for Three Pooches
Our power rankings framework makes the Broncos to be about a point worse than the visiting Bears Sunday. Further, our main NFL handicapping tool sees the Jags on the road as eight points inferior to the Texans. We also give the Jets a good chance of beating the Browns outright Monday Night. Thus, we perceive value with the underdogs in these instances, and are betting accordingly.
Supporting these prognostications, we point out an empirical study published in the The Journal of Prediction Markets in 2015. In a paper titled "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in NFL Betting Markets", Davis, McElfresh, et al examine NFL spreads and actual outcomes for a broad swath of NFL action. These researchers found the system of backing week 2 underdogs ATS to be consistently profitable, between 1997 and 2014, in games featuring 0-1 teams. The following table is an excerpt from their work.
Aside from a strikingly high (71%) cover rate for underdogs in this position over the examination period, the consistency of profits accruing to this system is also noteworthy. Between 1997 and 2012, this approach registered only three losing seasons.
Bottom line: The combination of the triggers from our power rankings framework, coupled with the powerful historical bias in favor of the point-takers from the present position compels us to get down on the Jags, Broncos and Jets to beat the number in week 2.