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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2019 NFL Sunday, Week 1: Favorites Look Overvalued

Our power rankings framework highlights a whopping eight plays for the inaugural Sunday of the 2019 NFL season. We describe below macro-level trends that support many of our recommended wagers.


Bengals +9.5 @ Seahawks

Ravens @ Dolphins +7.0

Chiefs @ Jaguars +3.5

Titans +6.0 @ Browns

Falcons +4.0 @ Vikings

Lions @ Cardinals +3.0

Giants @ Cowboys -7.0

Steelers +6.0 @ Patriots


Cincinnati @ Seattle

In addition  to the signal from our power rankings work, we note that big spreads have proven particularly tough to cover in week 1. Per Pro Football Reference, of the 99 professional football games played on the first Sunday of the season since 1940, road teams getting at least a touchdown are 53-42-4 (56%) against the spread. When the featured teams play in different divisions, the underdog is 33-24-2 (57%) versus the number.

Baltimore @ Miami

The same historical trends cited above also rationalize backing Miami versus Baltimore. But in addition to the power rankings-based signal and the historical support for the Dolphins from this position, the several independent computer simulation routines we license are unanimous in their endorsement of Miami this afternoon...not to mention the sharp action on the Fins, which hints that, in general, the larger, more informed wagers are down on the homeboys.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville

In-line with the indication from our power rankings system, sharp bettors are also lining up with the Jags.

Detroit @ Arizona

Our (primary) power ranking and computer sim approaches see this contest as pretty even-Steven, so the field goal looks like a gimme to us. Sharps seem to agree. The Lions opened up as one-point favorites before being bid up to the crucial 3 level. Professional bettors pounced at that point, per The Action Network, who tracked eight sharp action signals on the Cardinals plus the field goal.

Happy betting!!

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