NFL Week 12: Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers -3 (-120)
Our computer simulation work strongly endorses the Panthers cover this morning. Additionally, we observe historical evidence supporting the idea of the home team beating the number today. As such we are laying the field goal and backing Cam and the boys against the spread.
Carolina will be back in the comfort of Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte today, after being absolutely undressed in Pittsburgh in week 10, and then suffering a tough loss in Detroit last week.
The Panthers will face a rested Seahawks squad, as Seattle's #TNF appearance in week 11 results in a ten day stretch without action coming into today's game.
Since 2003, favorites on 1-4 game losing streaks are 83-60-2 ATS (58%) facing teams off at least ten days rest.
Favorites in rough patches that are expected to beat rested teams by no more than a field goal have submitted an even more impressive, 65%, cover rate.
We also note that the Seahawks' quarterback, in particular, has not fared especially well after unusually long layoffs:
Since taking Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft, Seattle is 5-8 ATS following at least ten days of inactivity.
The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS off ample rest when facing opposition that lost their last out.
We have also identified team-specific trends in support of the Panther's cause:
Since drafting Cam Newton, Carolina is 31-24-1 ATS at home through last season, and 4-1 ATS this year playing in their own building, including a 15-7-1 ATS showing after a loss.
Bottom line: Our assessment of the contextual landscape for this game fits with the signal from our computer simulation framework in favor of a Carolina cover. This dual-pronged support gives us comfort backing the home favorite to beat the number.