NFL Week 12: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-105)
Our power rankings composite makes the Eagles to be somewhere between five to ten points better than the NY Giants at Lincoln Financial Field this morning. Further, we observe context that likewise suggests the present is a good spot for the Philly cover. Accordingly, we are laying the 4.5 and siding with the defending champs.
First, from our friends at The Action Network, in the back half of the season it has been solidly profitable to bet on teams off bad losses to good teams.
Starting in week eight, supporting teams in the wake of 20+ point losses to teams that won at least 66% of their games has been good for a 61% cover rate since 2003.
Thus, history expects the Eagles to shake off last week's impotence.
On the other hand, the present appears a solid spot to sell the Giants recent progress as well.
Road dogs on two two-game win streaks facing divisional opposition have covered at a 43% clip since 2003.
And while Giants QB, Eli Manning, has been solid throughout his career as a road dog off a loss, the 37 year-old is has struggled in his last five from this spot, dating back to 2015. Of interest, Manning's passer rating also looks to have peaked in 2015. Taken together, these observations beg the question, 'has Father Time finally gained the upper hand over the youngest of the Manning boys?' (if we think the answer is yes, we should not expect a rebound in performance).
Since drafting Eli Manning in 2004, the Giants are 20-14-2 ATS as road dogs off a win...
However, New York is 0-4-1 in their last five games under these circumstances.
Manning's Giants are 9-6 ATS as road dogs facing divisional competition after a win, but 0-4 most recently.
Bottom line: We have observed sufficient evidence in favor of the Eagles cover, including a signal from our power rankings framework and several big picture betting trends, so make us comfortable laying the 4.5 on a team that only covered three games this season, none with a spread wider than -4. The tea leaves suggest to us that Eli Manning is so far past his prime at this point that trends that would have once supported New York's bid for the cover no longer apply.