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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2018 NFL Week 11: Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Philadelphia Eagles +9 (-110) @ New Orleans Saints

Per BetLabsSports' database, there have been 35 instances since 2005 where an NFL team managed eight SU wins in a row, such as the run New Orleans has strung together over the last couple of months.

Historically bettors have done well to fade wining streaks of eight. In fact, this guidance (accurately, as it were) argued in favor of these very Saints to beat the betting line at the Rams two weeks ago.

Also, as we noted in our Steelers @ Jaguars analysis, it has been profitable to back teams with cover rates of 40% or less against teams that beat the number at least 60% of the time. This system is 7-2 ATS this season.

Further, betting against home teams off really big wins has also been a winning approach. Fading teams playing in their own building, just after a win by five TDs or more has covered at a 62% clip.

And last but certainly not least, our power rankings composite forecasts the difference between the Eagles at Saints to be about a touchdown Sunday (in New Orleans favor), suggesting two points of value with the Eagles at the current betting line.

Given the indication from our power rankings model, coupled with the array of historical trends supporting the road cover, we are comfrtable taking the some-timey Eagles and the points.

Happy betting!!

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