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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2018 NFL Week 11: Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers

Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers -7 (-110)

We are laying the touchdown and taking the Chargers to cover versus the Broncos. Supporting our pick, our power rankings composite makes LA at home to be about ten points better than Denver Sunday, suggesting plenty of value with the home favorite. Additionally, history hints that the present situation represents a good spot for the Chargers.

Since 2003, home teams favored by more than a field goal after consecutive road covers have been strong plays, good for a 23% ROI (including a 3-0-1 ATS run this season).

Also consistent with the expectation for the home favorite to deliver the payday Sunday, it has been profitable to back (rather than fade) the public during weeks seven through 12 of the NFL season. The table illustrates outcomes related to siding with consensus in week 11, specifically, since 2003.

As of the time of this writing, Broncos / Chargers has not generated a ton of interest from the betting public. Nonetheless, 75% of spread bets tracked by The Action Network are down on LA.

Happy betting!!

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