NFL Week 9: Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers +6.0 (-125) @ New England Patriots
While our power rankings composite is mixed regarding weeks 9's edition of Sunday Night Football, our computer simulation system is emitting a strong signal in favor of the Packers cover. This framework suggests the Pats are no better than a field goal superior to Green Bay this evening (and actually run the risk of being upset). In addition to our sim work though, we have observed historical evidence in support of our play. As such we are comfortable betting against the Tom Brady-led Patriots tonight (sorta).
The Packer's average margin of victory through seven games is a razor thin three-tenths of a point. SInce 2005, teams with an average margin of victory in the range of ±1 point have been a great bet when receiving between a field goal and a touchdown.
This system is an even more profitable 31-18-1 ATS when the gamey dog is the away team.
Further, when the road dog faces opposition with a seven game margin that lies between 4 and 7, the underdog is 13-8 ATS (New England's 7-game margin is about 6.7 points heading into Sunday night's action).