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2018 NFL Week 9: Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-105) @ Washington Redskins

Our power rankings framework estimates the Falcons to be no worse than a point-and-a-half behind the Skins at FedExField this morning. Thus, we are backing the Dirty Birdies to cover.

Consistent with our power rankings composite's support for the Falcons, we note that teams off BYE weeks have been good for the cover most of the time when taking points on the road after winning and covering no more than two of their previous five out. Backing teams in this situation has delivered a whopping 21% ROI since 2004.

Rest aside, and much more generally, bad teams versus the number tend to cover against teams with winning ATS records. Squads that covered no more than 40% of the time have been good for a double-digit ROI since 2005 facing teams with a cover rate of 60% or better.

Happy betting!!

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