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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2018 NFL Week 9: Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills

Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills +10.5 (-105)

Our power rankings composite makes a travelling Bears team this week to be about a touchdown better than the Bills at home (on average). Thus, the current double-digit line appears to offer ample value with the home dogs.

Additionally, a highly profitable system on our roster offered a signal to fade Chicago on the heels of their big win versus the New York Jets last week. Teams that played their last game or two at home, are on a one game SU streak with a margin of at least 14, are favored on the road and are backed by at least 60% of spread bets have been a terrible bet since 2003.

As of the time of this writing, only 37% of spread bets tracked by The Action Network are down on the Bills. This lack of public support would normally be interpreted as a red flag during weeks 7 through 12 (the period of the season when fading the public has not historically been profitable). However, this system is 10-6 ATS during the period we regard as the belly of the season, so we are comfortable with our play.

In further support of the Bills Sunday, we note that double-digits home dogs have been good bets since 2003, delivering more than 18% ROI.

However, there is only one regular season NFL game in our dataset played under these circumstances during the in the bizarro week 7-12 period, so there is some uncertainty about this particular signal. Nonetheless, given the supportive alerts from our power rankings framework and the "Fade road teams off a big home win..." systems, in addition to this one, we areat peace with the home teamand the points.

Happy betting!!

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