2018 NFL Week 9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers -6 (-115)
After factoring in the presumed value of home field, our primary NFL handicapping framework estimates about an 8-9 point advantage to the Panthers when Carolina hosts the Tampa Bay Sunday. As such, we see substantial value with the home favorites.
Supporting the indication from our power rankings composite, we note that home favorites that made the prior post-season and that are on two-game SU/ATS win streaks have been solid bets since 2003, generating a 9% ROI.
When the team faces opposition from the same division, the cover rate is a virtually unchanged 55% (on an ATS record of 17-14-2 ATS). Or, when the team has garnered the support of a majority of spread bets the system is 37-27 ATS
Also of particular relevance, this framework is 16-11-1 ATS (59%) in weeks 7 through 12 (the period where bettors have profited to align with, rather than fade consensus picks).
In the Bucs favor however, teams that won only one of their last five SU/ATS and that are on a one-game cover streak are 59-43-1 ATS (58%) since 2003 against opposition from the same division.
However, this system is 7-10 ATS in divisional competition unfolding between weeks 7 and 12 where the team is backed by less than 50% of spread wagers.
Thus, we are comfortable with the output of our power rankings composite model, and are siding with Carolina to cover.