2018 NFL Week 9: Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills o37.5 (-105)
Through the first half of the 2018-2019 NFL season, the lowest betting total of record has been 39. Per AccuScore's database, two games landed on this figure so far this year: week 3's Bears at Cardinals matchup, and the week 6 Jaguars at Cowboys get-together. Sunday's Bears at Bills meeting, featuring a betting total of 37.5, appears set to supplant these contests as the lowest total of the season.
Consistent with our bias, we note that OVERs have fared well in games featuring low totals and home dogs off big covers for the UNDER in their prior outing. Teams receiving points in their own building for a game with a betting total less than 40 after the UNDER covered by a least ten in their last contest have generated a 14% ROI for OVER-backers since 2003.
Separately, in instances where road teams are off two-game home stands just before a game with a total of less than 40, the OVER has covered 55% of the time.